Whatever happens in the second round, it is obvious that France finds itself today in an unprecedented situation.
Indeed, it has never been so divided, not only from an arithmetic point of view, as we remember the tight scores in 1974 and 1981 between Valéry Giscard D’Estaing and François Mitterrand, but today, above all, divided from a point of ideological view.
The traditional parties have literally exploded and given way to those of the extreme left and right. They alone total approximately 50% of a French electorate which abstained at 52% from voting during this first round.
What served Macron five years ago with the implosion of the traditional parties has now turned against him. Today his party is second after that of La France Insoumise, a party of the far left.
It is very likely that with his fictitious allies of the moment, such as the Modem and Horizon parties, he will obtain a virtual majority. However, the ideological division will remain more than deep.
The sacred union of yesterday around a unifying LREM party is only a shadow of itself to the point that the Socialists disappointed by the political line of the president have sided with Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
The Republicans could only be allies of convenience supporting the president, if they obtain positions that live up to their expectations and can return to the race to regain control.
Macron will therefore probably win next Sunday, without being the first party in the National Assembly.
He will have to face an unprecedented parliamentary crisis and a social discontent that risks further destabilizing France, and it’s own power, if there is still one left.
It will take a lot of humility on the part of president’s power and outstretched hands to avoid the worst.
Jedediah
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