A Seat For Two

The results of this first round of the presidential elections will therefore have been without surprise, giving its electorate the choice of reappointing a president who will be able to pursue a policy for the next five years, or turning to a candidate proposing other approaches and perspectives.

Two candidates therefore are the outgoing president and the leader of the Rassemblement National.

A second round which promises to be very different from that which opposed them during the last televised debate.

The young president will have aged politically while in the meantime, the candidate of the Rassemblement National has matured.

The political landscape is no longer the same as the French have known it since the beginning of the Fifth Republic.

The traditional parties have been dynamited, eradicated from the French political hierarchy.

The socialist parties of François Mitterrand and Gaullist of Jacques Chirac have disappeared to give way to a Macronian nebula which could see some of its troops leave the ship to join another one, that of the Rassemblement National.

Another parameter to consider, the Republican front is well and truly dead, and the specter of swastikas, xenophobia and a regionalized France linked to the Le Pen image no longer frightens voters.

Today the strong progress of the candidate Marine Le Pen as well as the breakthrough of Eric Zemmour demonstrates that with a base of more than a third of the electorate, the extreme right defined as such it is for decades will have ended up conquering millions of French who will have definitively turned away from traditional political parties at the end of the race.

La France Insoumise of Jean-Luc Mélenchon with more than twenty percent accentuates this stream and shows that one out of two French people is ready to take the plunge.

The major question now is whether electors from the working class who voted for this political party anchored to the left side of the left will join the same working class that voted for Marine Le Pen. It is very likely that the voters of La France Insoumise will not support President Macron. Will they abstain and follow Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s instructions? This is the key question.

The path that the president will have to travel to convince them to vote for him will be much more sinuous than the one already taken by Marine Le Pen, who established herself in regions that governments have abandoned for too long. This is a key point.

It is not the support of a rolled socialist party and ecologists in disarray that will alone allow the president to win this second round. The belayer will therefore have to reach out to those who have remained at the foot of the mountain. How is he going to rally the yellow vests to his cause?

As for the LR credited with 5%, the internal war will have no other consequences than to divide them even more and see their votes scatter.

What are the 26% abstentionists going to do?

A narrow margin therefore for the tenant of the Elysée. A path that is opening up for Marine Le Pen and a harsh and tough TV confrontation.

A perilous, decisive exercise.


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